Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Europe⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

Belgium⮸

Population $11,589,623$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $61,838$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,256.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(59,256.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9,771$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,514.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,514.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $34,976$ on 2020-07-04

United Kingdom⮸

Population $67,886,011$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $286,412$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,922.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,922.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $44,283$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,073.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,073.9\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $240,754$ on 2020-07-04

Spain⮸

Population $46,754,778$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $250,545$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(8.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,195.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(238,195.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $28,385$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,530.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,530.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $71,784$ on 2020-07-04

Italy⮸

Population $60,461,826$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $241,419$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,212.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(234,212.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $34,854$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(9.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,866.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,866.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $14,621$ on 2020-07-04

Sweden⮸

Population $10,099,265$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $71,419$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,597.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,597.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,420$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,229.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,229.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $65,999$ on 2020-07-04

France⮸

Population $65,273,511$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $204,222$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(5.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190,225.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(190,225.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $29,896$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(8.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,933.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,933.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $97,141$ on 2020-07-04

Netherlands⮸

Population $17,134,872$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $50,548$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,043.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48,043.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $6,132$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,022.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,022.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $44,229$ on 2020-07-04

Ireland⮸

Population $4,937,786$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $25,509$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(6.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,103.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,741$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(401 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,687.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,687.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $404$ on 2020-07-04

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Malta recovered 97%
Estonia recovered 96%
Denmark recovered 89%
Italy recovered 86%
Lithuania recovered 80%
Hungary recovered 61%
Belarus recovered 52%
Poland recovered 24%

Malta⮸

Population $441,543$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $672$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(195 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{646.4}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(646.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $9$ on 2020-07-04

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-07 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $12$ on 2020-07-04

Estonia⮸

Population $1,326,535$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,993$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(677 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(66.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,891.5}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 33.7)}}\) (asimptote \(1,891.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $69$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(28.3 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{68.1}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 24.3)}}\) (asimptote \(68.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $54$ on 2020-07-04

Denmark⮸

Population $5,792,202$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,032$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(3.42 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{12,445.4}{1 + 10^{-0.033 (t - 43.0)}}\) (asimptote \(12,445.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $606$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(197 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(57.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{589.4}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 33.5)}}\) (asimptote \(589.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $409$ on 2020-07-04

Lithuania⮸

Population $2,722,289$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $1,831$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(628 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,699.1}{1 + 10^{-0.041 (t - 30.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,699.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $79$ on 2020-07-04

Best fit exponential: \(21.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(48.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{78.4}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 38.5)}}\) (asimptote \(78.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $207$ on 2020-07-04