Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $61,838$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.64 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(54.9\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{59,256.1}{1 + 10^{-0.042 (t - 42.4)}}\) (asimptote \(59,256.1\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $9,771$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(2.76 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(53.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,514.8}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 38.3)}}\) (asimptote \(9,514.8\))
Start date 2020-03-03 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $34,976$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $286,412$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.45 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(46.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{277,922.9}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 53.7)}}\) (asimptote \(277,922.9\))
Start date 2020-03-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $44,283$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.27 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{42,073.9}{1 + 10^{-0.036 (t - 46.3)}}\) (asimptote \(42,073.9\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $240,754$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $250,545$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(8.14 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{238,195.2}{1 + 10^{-0.050 (t - 35.8)}}\) (asimptote \(238,195.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $28,385$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.64 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(64.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{27,530.2}{1 + 10^{-0.049 (t - 34.3)}}\) (asimptote \(27,530.2\))
Start date 2020-03-01 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $71,784$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-22 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $241,419$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(7.02 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(63.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{234,212.1}{1 + 10^{-0.038 (t - 43.3)}}\) (asimptote \(234,212.1\))
Start date 2020-02-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $34,854$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(9.2 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{33,866.5}{1 + 10^{-0.037 (t - 45.8)}}\) (asimptote \(33,866.5\))
Start date 2020-02-23 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $14,621$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $71,419$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(4.47 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.7\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{100,597.4}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 104.2)}}\) (asimptote \(100,597.4\))
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,420$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(927 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,229.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 51.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,229.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $65,999$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $204,222$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(5.59 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(58.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{190,225.2}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 41.1)}}\) (asimptote \(190,225.2\))
Start date 2020-03-06 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $29,896$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(8.5 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{28,933.6}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 39.4)}}\) (asimptote \(28,933.6\))
Start date 2020-02-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $97,141$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $50,548$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.36 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(56.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{48,043.8}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 41.9)}}\) (asimptote \(48,043.8\))
Start date 2020-03-08 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $6,132$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(1.79 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(55.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,022.8}{1 + 10^{-0.044 (t - 38.9)}}\) (asimptote \(6,022.8\))
Start date 2020-03-02 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $44,229$ on 2020-07-04
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $25,509$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(6.56 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{25,103.4}{1 + 10^{-0.051 (t - 44.2)}}\) (asimptote \(25,103.4\))
Start date 2020-03-11 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,741$ on 2020-07-04
Best fit exponential: \(401 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,687.2}{1 + 10^{-0.053 (t - 44.0)}}\) (asimptote \(1,687.2\))
Start date 2020-03-04 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $404$ on 2020-07-04